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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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